NBP: spike in electricity and gas tariffs for households to reach double figures

The National Bank of Poland published a report on inflation on Tuesday at its website. According to NBP Economic Analysis and Research Department July projection, the peak of inflation is expected in Q1 of 2023. The CPI is to reach 18.8%.

According to the July projection, the consumer price index in 2022 is to be at 14.2% y/y, at 12.3% in 2023, and to approximate NBP's upper limits of inflation target in 2024, with 4.1%. The NBP inflation target is 2.5% =/- 1 p.p. "Inflation will not reach the upper limit of this band until 2024 Q4," the report says.

In its latest inflation report, the central bank pointed out the energy prices turned out to be higher than predicted in March. At a press conference on Tuesday, NBP Economic Analysis and Research Department Director Piotr Szpunar was asked about the projected increase in electricity and gas prices for households. "Big, double figures, but we wouldn't like to present these assumptions as they are purely technical. ... We might say that higher increase in tariffs are expected in the case of gas," Szpunar said.

In a July projection, the NBP assumes energy prices to increase by 33.9% y/y, and by 30.9% in 2023.

Three of the so-called last resort suppliers - Tauron Sprzedaż, Enea and Energa Obrót - have already filed requests at the Energy Regulatory Office (URE) to change the current tariffs on energy sales for households. URE spokesperson Agnieszka Głosniewska told TVN24 Biznes on Monday that tariff proceedings in said cases were launched.

Earlier on, wysokienapiecie.pl portal informed about the issue by saying that Tauron had asked for a 6% tariff increase.

Energy companies expect tariffs to be changes still in 2022. In case the changes are approved, the companies will have the right to implement them already after 14 days, and 45 days after the decision at the latest.

In June, E.ON Poland (previously Innogy Poland) has introduced higher electricity rates and increased the so-called commercial fee. The prices have gone up by 5.2% and by 18% compared to 2021.

E.ON Poland is an energy provider which operates mainly in Warsaw. The company has more than 1 million individual and business clients. It is one the energy firms which sets the prices on its own and does not have to file a request for tariff change at URE.

Tariffs approved by the regulator for the four last resort suppliers are binding for 9.8 million household consumers, which is 63% of all 15.6 million household clients.

More than 37% of household consumers in Poland - over 5.8 million people - use free market offers which do not have to be approved by the state regulator.