Who will win the 2025 presidential election? Latest poll

With less than six months remaining until the next presidential election, the latest Opinia24 poll for RMF FM indicates that the Civic Coalition (KO) candidate, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, can count on the support of 38.6% of respondents in the first round.

Karol Nawrocki, backed by the Law and Justice (PiS) party, would secure the second-best result with 23.3%.

Following them were Sławomir Mentzen (10.7%) and Szymon Hołownia (7.4%).

Support for a candidate from the Left (the survey was conducted before Magdalena Biejat’s candidacy was officially announced) stands at 2.6%. Marek Jakubiak of the Free Republicans, according to the survey results, can count on 1.3% of the vote.

Meanwhile, 6.6% of respondents expressed a preference for another candidate, and an additional 9.5% chose the response "hard to say."

In the event of a second round, nearly half of respondents (exactly 48.9%) declared their intention to vote for Rafał Trzaskowski. Support for Karol Nawrocki was expressed by 34.1% of those surveyed. Another 17% of participants responded with "I don't know" or "hard to say."

Three weeks ago, in a survey by Opinia24 for Fakty TVN and TVN24, 41% of respondents declared their intention to vote for Rafał Trzaskowski in the first round. Support for Karol Nawrocki stood at 26%, followed by Sławomir Mentzen with 12% and Szymon Hołownia with 9%. In the second round, support for Warsaw's mayor reached 52%, while 41% of respondents expressed a willingness to vote for Karol Nawrocki.

The latest RMF survey suggests that voter turnout could be substantial. A remarkable 86% of respondents declared their intention to vote, with 61% answering "definitely yes."

The study was conducted on a representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles. According to RMF FM, the survey was carried out using a proprietary methodology and employed computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI).