Rafał Trzaskowski received the highest support from voters in a candidates for mayor of Warsaw survey by KANTAR Millward Brown for TVN24 and "Fakty" TVN. According to the poll, the Civic Coalition's candidate would get 42 percent of votes in the first round, whereas his main rival, United Right's candidate Patryk Jaki would get 30 percent of votes. The poll also predicts that Trzaskowski would win by a large margin also in the second round.
The survey was carried out between 16th and 18th of October 2018 on a representative sample of 1028 residents of Warsaw.
Asked which of the mayoral candidates would they support, 42 percent of respondents picked Rafał Trzaskowski from Civic Coalition.
The Law and Justice's candidate, Patryk Jaki would come second with 30 percent of support.
Three candidates would share the third place: Jan Śpiewak (Warsaw Wins), Andrzej Rozenek (Democratic Left Alliance) and Justyna Glusman (City is Ours - City Activists). Each one would receive 3 percent of votes.
Candidates outside podium
Further down the list, outside the podium the order would be as follows: Marek Jakubiak (Kukiz'15) - 2 percent, Janusz Korwin-Mikke (Liberty Party), Jacek Wojciechowicz (Action Warsaw), Piotr Ikonowicz (Social Justice Movement) and Jakub Stefaniak (Polish People's Party) - all with 1-percent support. None of the respondents would vote for all the remaining candidates.
Nine percent of respondents said they haven't yet decided who would they vote for, whereas 4 percent refused to answer the question.
Trzaskowski clinches second round
According to the results of the survey, a run-off would be needed to elect the mayor of Warsaw. That's because none of the candidates would receive more than 50 percent of votes in the first round which is needed to win directly.
Asked about who would they vote for in the second round, if the run-off was between Rafał Trzaskowski and Patryk Jaki, 59 percent picked the Civic Coalition's candidate. His rival, supported by Law and Justice, would get 30 percent of votes, which is exactly the same amount as in the first round, according to the poll.
Eleven percent of respondents answered: don't know / hard to say / haven't decided yet.
The second round of the local elections is scheduled for the 4th of November.
People who took part in the survey declared a high turnout. As much as 82 percent said they would "definitely take part" in the first round of the elections, whereas 6 percent said they would "rather take part". In regard to the second round, 79 percent of those surveyed declared a "definite participation".
Division into districts
Taking into account particular districts of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski would win the first round in Ursynów and Wilanów (54 percent for Trzaskowski; 23 percent for Jaki); in Bielany and Żoliborz (49 percent for Trzaskowski; 23 percent for Jaki); in Mokotów and Śródmieście (46 percent for Trzaskowski; 24 percent for Jaki); as well as in a territory encompassing Praga Południe, Rembertów, Wawer and Wesoła, but there the difference is very slight (35 percent for Trzaskowski; 33 percent for Jaki).
Patryk Jaki, on the other hand, would win over Civic Coalition's candidate in Ochota, Ursus and Włochy (43 percent over 33 percent) as well as in Bemowo and Wola (35 percent over 31 percent).
Autor: gf / Źródło: TVN24 International, Kantar Millward Brown for "Fakty" TVN and TVN24