Sikorski or Trzaskowski? PM Tusk announces poll results

The Civic Coalition will hold primaries on November 22 to select their candidate for next year’s presidential election. Members will choose between Warsaw Mayor and Civic Platform Vice President Rafał Trzaskowski and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski.

Donald Tusk shared the results on Monday afternoon, stating: "Rafał Trzaskowski beats a PiS candidate in the first round 40 to 28, and in the second 57 to 43," and "Radek Sikorski loses to a PiS candidate in the first round 28 to 30, but wins in the second 54 to 46."

PiS has not yet announced its candidate for the presidential race.

"The poll results are clear, but they remain just a guideline. The power of decision lies in your voice!" emphasized Tusk.

The poll was conducted by Opinia24 on behalf of the Civic Platform between November 5-10, surveying 2,001 Poles via phone calls. It evaluated the electoral potential of Trzaskowski and Sikorski in the Civic Coalition primaries and gauged public opinion on both politicians. The survey also analyzed preferences for the first and second rounds of the presidential election.

According to the poll, 41% of all Poles consider the possibility of voting for Rafał Trzaskowski in the presidential election. For Radosław Sikorski, this figure is 26%. Assuming that the number of eligible voters in next year's presidential election will be similar to last year's parliamentary election (29.5 million), it can be estimated that Trzaskowski's current electoral potential is around 12.1 million votes, while Sikorski's is about 7.7 million, as stated on the PO website.

Asked: "How many Poles currently consider voting for a given candidate in the presidential election?" - 41% would vote for Trzaskowski (approximately 12.1 million), 33% for a PiS candidate (about 9.7 million), 26% for Sikorski (about 7.7 million), 24% for Szymon Hołownia (about 7.1 million), 19% for Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk (about 5.6 million), and 10% for Sławomir Mentzen (about 2.9 million).

Currently, 77% of Poles with left-wing views say they would vote for Rafał Trzaskowski, while 38% would support Radosław Sikorski.

Among centrist voters, 62% would back Trzaskowski, while 43% would choose Sikorski.

Among those unable to define their political views, 30% would support Trzaskowski, and 16% would opt for Sikorski.

In terms of right-wing voters, both candidates receive similar levels of support in the KO primaries. 13% of right-wing respondents would vote for Trzaskowski, and 12% would choose Sikorski.

Overall, 49% of Poles have a positive opinion of Rafał Trzaskowski, while 38% have a negative view of him.

Radosław Sikorski has a positive rating from 44% of Poles, while 37% have a negative opinion of him.

The poll examined the potential results of the first round of the presidential election, assuming candidates from the five largest political parties were running. Two variations were considered: one with Rafał Trzaskowski and the other with Radosław Sikorski as the candidate for the Civic Coalition (KO).

If Rafał Trzaskowski were to run in the first round, he would receive 40% support. A PiS candidate would gain 28%, Sławomir Mentzen would get 15%, Szymon Hołownia would secure 13%, and Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk would have 4%.

In the second round, Trzaskowski could count on 57% of the vote, while a PiS candidate would receive 43%.

If Radosław Sikorski were the candidate for the Civic Coalition (KO), in the first round, a PiS candidate would win with 30% of the vote, while Sikorski would receive 28%. Szymon Hołownia could gain 21%, Sławomir Mentzen - 16%, and Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk - 6%.

In the second round, with Sikorski as the KO candidate, he could secure 54% of the vote, while a PiS candidate would receive 46%.

The presidential election will take place in the spring of next year. Andrzej Duda is completing his second and final term in August.