The European Commission raised its GDP growth forecasts for Poland on Friday (November 15). In 2024, growth is projected at 3%, and at 3.6% in 2025. Earlier, spring estimates suggested the GDP growth at 2.8% this year and at 3.4% next year.
Following a rebound in 2024, Poland’s economy is expected to grow at a faster pace in 2025, according to the European Commission. Analysts predict that the main driver of this growth will be private consumption, supported by rapidly rising wages, increased government spending on family support, improved consumer sentiment, and easing inflationary pressures, while net exports are expected to weigh on the economy.
According to the Commission, Poland's GDP growth will slow in 2026 due to reduced private and public consumption and slower investment growth. Risks to the forecasts mainly concern delays in implementing public investments.
At the same time, the Commission lowered its inflation forecast for Poland in 2024 from 4.3% to 3.8% but raised it for 2025 - from 4.2% to 4.7%. The increase in 2025 is attributed to the planned "unfreezing" of energy prices.
EU officials also estimate that the unemployment rate in Poland will remain below 3% in 2025. The employment rate of displaced individuals from Ukraine is expected to continue growing, positively impacting employment levels.
The unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly to 2.9% in 2024 but decrease in 2025 and 2026. Nominal wage growth is expected to remain strong, reaching 11.4% in 2024, before slowing to 5.9% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026, reflecting increasing labor demand and historically low unemployment in 2026, the forecast noted.
The European Commission anticipates that the general government deficit will rise to 5.8% of GDP in 2024, driven by increased defense spending (estimated at 2.6% of GDP), public sector wage hikes, and new family benefits.
The deficit is also being impacted by measures aimed at mitigating the social and economic effects of high energy prices, extended until the end of the year. Meanwhile, tax revenues, particularly from VAT and corporate income tax, were lower than expected in the first three quarters of the year, the Commission reported.
In 2025, the deficit is expected to decrease to 5.6% of GDP "on the back of a cyclical upturn and of the phase-out of energy-support measures."
The Commission expects tax revenues to grow, partly due to the adoption of a program of excise tax increases on tobacco and alcohol products. Nominal wage growth is anticipated to support higher income tax revenues.
In 2026, according to the Commission, the deficit will decrease further to 5.3% of GDP.
Źródło: TVN24 News in English, PAP
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