CBOS poll: supporters of one party "return" due to demonstration effect

If parliamentary elections were held in the second half of November, Civic Coalition (KO) would secure 32%, Law and Justice (PiS) - 31%, Confederation - 13%, Third Way - 7%, and The Left - 6% of the vote, according to a CBOS survey conducted in the second half of November.

In comparison to the previous poll conducted on November 4-6, during the conclusion of the U.S. presidential elections, support for KO fell by 2 percentage points, from 34% to 32%.

Support for PiS increased by 6 points during the same period, rising from 25% to 31%.

"Thus, the KO’s lead over PiS has significantly narrowed, returning to the level observed in early October," the CBOS commentary noted.

Confederation achieved 13%, a 1-point increase since early November. Third Way (Poland 2050 and PSL) improved by 2 points, climbing from 5% to 7%. The Left (Lewica) scored 6%, down 1 point from 7% in early November.

In addition, 2% of respondents expressed support for Razem Party, which marks a 1-point decline. Support for other parties remained unchanged at 1%.

The share of undecided voters fell to 9%, down by 5 points compared to early November.

According to CBOS, the "unexpected yet clear" victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election on November 5 has triggered in the political perception of Poles what sociology refers to as the "demonstration effect."

CBOS noted that the election outcome showcased the success of an "underrated Republican right-wing faction, underestimated even in polls." The "domestic corollary of this victory," they suggest, is the current rise in support for PiS, perceived as an ally of Donald Trump.

However, this increase in PiS's support did not come at the expense of its political competitors. Instead, it appears to stem from the return of PiS voters who had "previously doubted and moved to the undecided category." The growth in PiS support coincides with a decrease in the group of undecided voters.

If elections were held in the second half of November, 86% of respondents would participate - 4 percentage points more than at the beginning of the month. This figure represents the highest declared turnout since November 2023.

At the same time, 8% of respondents categorically ruled out participating, a 3-point decrease from early November.

The CBOS survey was conducted on November 18-20, using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI - 93.4%) and online interviews (CAWI - 6.6%). The sample included 1,000 adult residents of Poland.