Trzaskowski or Nawrocki? CBOS latest presidential poll

On Tuesday, the Public Opinion Research Center (CBOS) published its latest electoral survey, simulating a scenario where the second round of next year’s presidential elections features Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate of the Civic Coalition and the Mayor of Warsaw, against Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of PiS and the President of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN).

The survey, conducted between December 2 and 4, shows that in this hypothetical match-up, Trzaskowski could count on 46 percent of the vote, while Nawrocki would garner 34 percent. Additionally, 17 percent of respondents said they would not vote for either candidate, and 3 percent were undecided.

The difference between the candidates is smaller than in the previous survey conducted between November 18 and 20, which also considered an identical second-round election scenario. At that time, Trzaskowski received 50 percent of support, while Nawrocki garnered 24 percent. 18 percent of respondents declared no support for either of them, and 8 percent were undecided.

This survey was conducted before Nawrocki was officially announced as PiS’s presidential candidate (which happened on November 24), and before Rafał Trzaskowski was selected as the Civic Coalition’s candidate in the primaries (announced on November 23). In that survey, Radosław Sikorski, Rafał Trzaskowski, and Szymon Hołownia were compared with Przemysław Czarnek and Karol Nawrocki.

The CBOS survey also included questions on respondents' party preferences. Rafał Trzaskowski enjoys nearly unanimous support - 98 percent - among the Civic Coalition electorate, while Nawrocki similarly enjoys 98 percent support from PiS voters.

Among Confederation voters, 50 percent would support Nawrocki in the second round, 8 percent would back Trzaskowski, and 40 percent would not vote for either candidate. Additionally, 2 percent were undecided.

Among voters of the Third Way (Trzecia Droga), Trzaskowski would receive 80 percent support in the second round, while Nawrocki would get 5 percent. 14 percent of Third Way voters would not support either candidate. Trzaskowski also enjoys nearly unanimous support - 98 percent - among Left-wing voters.

As for voters with unspecified party preferences, 45 percent would support Trzaskowski in the second round, while 23 percent would back Nawrocki. 17 percent have no opinion on the matter.

The survey was conducted using telephone interviews (62.8 percent) and internet interviews (37.2 percent) from December 2 to 4, 2024, with a sample of 1,000 adult residents of Poland.