According to the latest voter sentiment poll carried out by Kantar for "Fakty" TVN and TVN24, the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) enjoys the highest support with 34%, which would translate in 188 seats in the Sejm. However, three opposition parties which took the next best three results in the poll - Civic Coalition (KO), New Left, and Third Way - would win 244 seats combined, a parliamentary majority. The distance between PiS and Civic Coalition has decreased compared to the September poll. New Left has noted the highest increase in support of all parties.
34 percent of those surveyed by Kantar declared they would vote for Law and Justice. The second-best result in the poll was taken by Civic Coalition (Civic Platform, Modern, Polish Initiative, The Greens) - 30 percent.
The result of the two largest parties mean that the distance between PiS and Civic Coalition has decreased compared to September poll. At the moment it is 4 percentage points, whereas in the last month's Kantar poll for "Fakty" TVN and TVN24 it was 6 pp (PiS - 37%, KO - 31%).
The third-best result in the survey was 10 percent, scored by New Left. The left-wing coalition has noted an increase in voter support by 4 pp compared to September. New Left has enjoyed the highest increase in voter support of all parties.
The next result of 9 percent was taken by Third Way (Szymon Hołownia's Poland 2050 - Polish People's Party).
8 percent of respondents declared they would vote for Confederation Liberty and Independence.
Nonpartisan Local Government Activists would secure 2 percent of votes.
Also 2 percent of those asked declared their support for other election committees.
The answer "don't know/hard to say/haven't decided yet/refuse to answer" was picked by 5 percent of those surveyed.
Opposition with parliamentary majority
And how would such percentage results translate into number of seats in the Sejm?
In such a scenario, PiS would secure 188 seats, Civic Coalition - 157, New Left - 46, Third Way - 41, Confederation - 27, and German Minority - one seat.
It means that Civic Coalition New Left, and Third Way would win 244 seats combined, which would give them more than absolute majority in the Sejm (231 seats).
Źródło: TVN24 News in English, TVN24
Źródło zdjęcia głównego: Fotokon/Shutterstock