Inflation in March at level unseen since July of 2000

The highest increase has been recorded in the prices of fuels for personal transport means - by 33.5%. Prices of electricity, gas and other fuels has gone up by 23.9%, whereas cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages is higher by 9.2%.

According to a flash estimate by Statistics Poland, the consumer price index in March has increased by 3.2% compared to the previous month.

Ther last time when inflation was so high was in July of 2000, when it amounted to 11.6%. To compare, consumer prices in February, 2022 was at 8.5% year on year. The final numbers for March will be released on April 15.

According to March projection by the National Bank of Poland, inflation in 2022 will be 10.8%, at 9% in 2023, and at 4.2% in 2024.

"Unfortunately, it's not a bad April Fools' Day joke. According to preliminary estimate by GUS, inflation in March accelerated to 10.9% yoy from 8.5% in February. Market consensus has again largely underestimated (10.1%).

PKO BP economists pointed out that the increase in prices in a month-to-month comparison was the highest since 1996. "Prices icreased by 3.2% month on month, the highest since 1996; mainly due to a sharp increase in fuel prices (28.0% m/m)" - they said.

According to economists from mBank, inflation will be even higher in April.

The Polish Economic Institute said that the high inflation was a result of "a sharp increase in fuel prices after Russian aggression on Ukraine". "Energy and food prices have also gone up sharply," the instutute added.

According to financial markets analyst from Cinkciarz.pl, Bartosz Sawicki, new data on inflation has created the risk that the Monetary Policy Council will "again increase interests rates by 75 basis points". The next session of the council is to take place on Wednesday, April 6.