"Warsaw will send a strong signal". Polish leaders' briefing ahead of NATO summit in Vilnius

On Monday (July 10) - on the eve of the NATO summit in Vilnius - a briefing of Poland's Defence Ministry and Armed Forces leadership took place in Legionowo, near Warsaw. Among the attendees were President Andrzej Duda, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, and Defence Minister Mariusz Błaszczak.

Defence Minister Mariusz Błaszczak said "undeniably the biggest challenge (that NATO must face - edit.) is the attempt to rebuild an empire by Vladimir Putin's regime as well as the attack on Ukraine". "Our goal, our struggle, is to border and neighbour an independent Ukraine, and not a part of Russia," he noted.

Hence - he added - "our struggle so that the Russian Empire is not rebuilt". "Because we know all too well that regardless if it was white - the Tsarist Russian Empire, or red - the Communist one, or the present-day Putin's attempt to rebuild it, have always carried along evil, experienced by civilians from Irpin or Bucha who had been murdered by Russian mercenaries," the minister stressed.

The MOD chief also said Poland was hoping "the North-Atlantic Alliance would expand" and that Sweden would join NATO. "We hope the North-Atlantic Alliance will send a clear signal regarding support for Ukraine. And we also hope that - also thanks to our, Polish efforts - the NATO's deterrence and defence policies will be even more pronounced," Błaszczak added.

President Andrzej Duda said Poland would launch a legislative process aimed at strengthening the country's defence planning system.

"The aim of these future changes is to strengthen coordination between political and military authorities in terms of defence planning, both in times of peace and during potential crisis, to increase the decision-making pace in crisis situations, and to bolster defence systems in situations of danger of both hybrid and subversive nature, which unfortunately are being carried out today by the Russian Federation," Duda said.

The president also announced that "Warsaw will send a strong signal" at the summit in Vilnius. "A signal that Russian policy based on threats of nuclear escalation against NATO countries cannot remain unanswered," he explained.

The president stressed Poland primarily expected strengthening of NATO's "military dimension". "We expect decisions regarding new defence plans, that will be the most advanced planning documentation the NATO has had since the Cold War," he added.

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said he would like to work out a plan for Ukraine's NATO accession as soon as possible, and to provide Ukraine with the broadest security guarantees. "But on the other hand, I wish the decisions made at the summit in Madrid were actually implemented, because rapid response forces with more than 300,000 soldiers ensure a powerful clout and defence on the modern battlefield," he added.

"We expect our partners to also invest in their armed forces in a very expedited manner ... and build these rapid response forces. In order for this to be easier, we could change the rules of budget accounting under the Stability and Growth Pact," Morawiecki argued.

According to the prime minister, many countries that had fallen in a "deep geopolitical slumber", of which they were later woken by the immediate threat coming from Russia.

He reminded that said threat did not begin on February 24, 2022, but already during the Chechen Wars, in which the Russians - according to Morawiecki - had shown their true barbarity.

The Polish PM argued that the threat posed by Russia needed a firm response. "The neoliberal world has collapsed like a house of cards, while perceptions of shaping each budgetary, political, and geopolitical realities have changed fundamentally."

"In order to live in a safe world, we must cordon off our aggressive neighbour, which is Russia," Morawiecki said, adding that said cordon should run from Scandinavia down to the Balkans.

NATO leaders will meet in Vilnius on July 11-12 to tackle a wide range of topics, from divisions over Ukraine's membership bid and Sweden's accession to boosting ammunitions stockpiles and reviewing the first defence plans in decades.

It will be the fourth NATO summit since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with the first held virtually on Feb. 25, 2022, just one day after the assault, followed by meetings in Brussels and in Madrid.

The extraordinary flurry of gatherings stands in contrast to the previous rhythm of annual NATO summits and shows how war on its doorstep has forced the alliance to strengthen cooperation.

Following is a list of the main issues to be discussed in Vilnius:

The summit looks set to be dominated by how NATO will define its future relationship with Ukraine, amid repeated calls by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for Kyiv to receive an invitation into the alliance at Vilnius.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has made clear that Kyiv will not become a member while war rages, and that the Vilnius summit will not issue a formal invitation.

Still, allies are divided over how swiftly Ukraine should be allowed to join after the fighting ends.

While eastern European countries say a road map should be offered to Kyiv at the summit, the U.S. and Germany are wary of any move that might take the alliance closer to war with Russia.

In the run-up to Vilnius, some countries have suggested to allow Kyiv to skip the so-called Membership Action Plan (MAP) programme that sets out political, economic and military targets candidates have to meet and that other eastern European nations had to pass before joining NATO.

Stoltenberg said he had put forward a package that included the removal of MAP but stopped short of confirming a tweet by Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba who stated there was a consensus among allies to drop MAP.

With such a move, the alliance could address demands to go beyond the declaration of the Bucharest summit in 2008, which said Ukraine would become a member eventually, without offering Kyiv an actual invitation or timetable.

NATO is also likely to find a stronger wording than 2008 to underscore Kyiv's perspective for joining the alliance.

Leaders could agree upon something like "Ukraine's rightful place is in NATO", echoing remarks by Stoltenberg on a visit to Kyiv in April, or stress that "trans-Atlantic security would be incomplete without Ukraine".

Leaders are expected to discuss what security assurances Kyiv should get for the time after the war, even though these pledges will be bilateral and not issued by the alliance itself.

They will likely include the promise of continued military and financial aid to Kyiv to deter Russia from a renewed attack once the war has ended.

Stoltenberg has underlined that NATO - under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty - will provide full-fledged security guarantees to full members of the alliance only.

Leaders will review the first defence plans the alliance has drawn up since the Cold War, detailing how NATO would respond to a Russian attack.

The revival of the so-called regional plans signifies a fundamental shift. With the plans, the alliance also gives nations guidance on how to upgrade their forces and logistics.

NATO had for decades seen no need for large-scale defence plans but with Europe's bloodiest war since 1945 raging just beyond its borders in Ukraine, it is now warning that it must have all planning in place well before a conflict with a peer adversary such as Moscow might erupt.

Turkey has been blocking approval of the plans over the wording on geographical locations such as Cyprus. The issue will be left for leaders to solve unless allies find agreement before the summit.

NATO will also raise targets for the stockpiling of ammunitions as Kyiv is burning through shells much faster than Western countries can produce them.

At the same time, allies will show how they aim to implement NATO's goal, agreed at last year's Madrid summit, of putting over 300,000 troops on high alert, up from 40,000 in the past, to counter Russia.

Sweden had hoped to become the 32nd member of the alliance in Vilnius but Turkey continues to block its accession, accusing Stockholm of harbouring members of militant groups on its territory and saying it must crack down on them before being allowed to join NATO.

Allies hope that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will lift his opposition at the summit but it is unclear whether this will happen.

NATO allies have reached agreement to raise the alliance's target for military spending to at least 2% of national GDP, according to two diplomats.

The 31 allies agreed on "an enduring commitment to invest at least 2%" of their GDP into their militaries in the future, two diplomats said.

Stoltenberg had intended to make NATO's previous military spending target of 2% of national GDP a minimum requirement rather than a goal to aim for.

In 2023, even the old target will be met by only 11 of the 31 members of the alliance, according to NATO estimates. The goal was set in 2014, when NATO leaders agreed to increase spending towards 2% of their GDP on defence within a decade.

The 11 allies in question are the United States, Britain, Poland, Greece, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Hungary, Latvia and Slovakia.

Bringing up the rear are Canada, Slovenia, Turkey, Spain, Belgium and Luxembourg whose defence spending was under 1.4% of GDP.