CBOS poll: one party with the largest drop in support

If elections to the Sejm and Senate were held in early November, 34% of declared voters would support KO, 25% would vote for PiS, and 12% would back the Confederation, according to the latest CBOS poll. The Left would garner 7% support, the Third Way would get 5%, and Razem would receive 3%.

As CBOS points out, "at the beginning of November, we observe a deepening difference in ratings between the two most significant political groups," while certain changes in support for other parties within the ruling coalition are also visible.

Hypothetical elections held in the first decade of November would result in a victory for the Civic Coalition, which would be supported by 34% of declared voters. Compared to the survey two weeks ago, KO's support slightly increased (by 1 percentage point).

Law and Justice would take second place, with 25% of voters intending to cast their ballots for them, a drop of 4 percentage points compared to the end of October. According to CBOS, this is "the largest drop" recorded in this poll. The current 9-point lead of KO over PiS is the highest since April of this year.

In third place in the CBOS ranking, as in previous months, is Confederation Liberty and Independence, which currently has 12% of declared voters. Compared to the previous survey, support for Confederation has also slightly increased (1 percentage point up).

In fourth place in the November poll is the Left, which has 7% of declared voters, the same as at the end of October. Razem, a party that was recently part of this coalition but now exists as an independent group outside of the coalition (and outside the ruling coalition), would receive 3% of the votes.

"Thus, both left-wing groups, although now following different political paths, gained a total of 10%, which almost matches the best result for the entire bloc since the elections a year ago," noted CBOS.

As noted, if the elections to the Sejm and Senate were held now, the coalition Third Way (PSL and Poland 2050) would likely not have any representatives in parliament, with only 5% of declared voters intending to support it. Compared to the survey from two weeks ago, the party led by Szymon Hołownia and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz has lost 3 percentage points.

In November, the number of undecided voters—those who were unsure which party to vote for—has risen to 14% (an increase of 3 percentage points).

If the elections to the Sejm and Senate were held in early November, according to the respondents' own declarations, 82% of eligible voters would participate; 5 percentage points more than at the end of October.

11% of respondents categorically reject the possibility of participating in the parliamentary elections, which is 3 percentage points fewer than in the most recent survey, conducted in late October, and nearly the same as in late September.

The study was conducted using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI - 87.1%) and online surveys (CAWI - 12.9%) from November 4 to 6, 2024, with a sample of adult residents of Poland (N=1000).