It’s been a year since the Law and Justice government broke off the negotiations on purchasing Caracal helicopters. The first batch could have made it to the army already this year. It was announced that other machines would be purchased quickly but nothing has come out of it. “The realistic timing is the end of 2019 or even the year 2020”– says Michał Likowski, editor-in-chief of the “Raport-WTO” monthly.
Back in February, minister Antoni Macierewicz declared that everything would be different. “We will reach this total number of 50 helicopters, firstly – faster, secondly – with less expense, and thirdly – with better results”, he declared at Telewizja Republika TV station.
For now, though, there’s only talk of eight machines and eight more at some later time. The big purchase of 50 items has entirely disappeared from the official communication and nobody mentions it as a priority. This means that the great majority of the army has to cope with the old helicopters made in the USSR, as these will remain in service for many years to come.
Dates far into the future
The purchasing procedure for new machines is progressing at a slow pace. In accordance with the rules and regulations, irrespective of political declarations. According to the latest information from early September, the Armament Inspectorate (IU), which manages the project, is waiting for the final bids from companies wishing to sell helicopters to Poland. Officially no further dates of the procedure timeline are disclosed. According to “Dziennik Zbrojny” portal, the deadline for bid submission is the end of December.
The bids the submission of which was announced in March were only initial in nature. Negotiations with potential suppliers have continued for the last six months. Now they are supposed to present final bids. These will be analysed and, based thereon, the Ministry of National Defence will select one of the companies. When this happens, the selected helicopter is to come to Poland for tests, following which the final agreement is to be signed. The timing of this event is currently set in general terms for “the first half of 2018”.
When can soldiers get the first helicopters? “There is virtually no chance that the first machines will be delivered in 2018. In my opinion, the realistic date is the end of 2019 or even the year 2020, judging from the previous projects of that type – says Michał Likowski, editor-in-chief of the “Raport-WTO” monthly.
As he explains, two years between signing the agreement and the delivery are the standard lead time applied for purchasing such equipment. Still, this time can be extended if the Ministry of National Defence requests any changes to the standard helicopters which are serially manufactured.
Those most badly needed – for later
Importantly, for the time being the IU is only moving forward the procedure to purchase eight helicopters for special ops in the version called CSAR/SOF (combat search and rescue /special operations forces). There is no mention of the second procedure, whose launch was announced at the same time over half a year ago. Its object is to purchase eight machines for the Navy, intended to rescue castaways and fight submarines. There is no telling when the second procedure will get off the ground. So the deliveries of those machines can be expected in the 2020s.
Meanwhile, as we emphasised back in March, Special Ops are in the best situation among the whole army when it comes to helicopters. They have at their disposal the Mi-17, purchased in the last decade, which are modern, by Polish armed forces’ standards, though far from perfect. “They meet some minimum requirements, but cannot match specialised western constructions”, Likowski points out.
The purchase of machines for the Navy, which is in the worst situation when it comes to the helicopter park, has been put on the back burner. Its Mi-14 machines are 30 years old on average and are quite worn out. Two Mi-14PŁ/R used for rescuing castaways are 35 years old. Many years ago, they were scheduled to stay in service until 2015, until recently the years 2017/2018 were mentioned. Currently, the year 2021 is the new scenario. Hence, badly used up helicopters are supposed to fly for nearly 40 years and no major overhauls are planned.
Likowski points out that CSAR machines for Special Ops are “relatively easier” to buy as they are simpler and cheaper than those needed by the navy. –"This means faster deliveries”, he says.
Macierewicz’s announcements have vanished into thin air
Likewise, there is no longer any mention of the loud declarations of Minister Antoni Macierewicz dating back to autumn 2016. Nearly exactly a year ago, on 10 October, at the PZL Mielec plant owned by the US-based Lockheed Martin, he declared that by the end of the year Special Ops would receive two Blackhawk helicopters manufactured by this US corporation, “for training and testing”.
A day later, he even presented in Łódź an accurate schedule of deliveries of a larger number of machines. In addition to the two mentioned before, eight Blackhawks were to be delivered as early as in 2017, and eleven in 2018. A month later, the Minister went back on his declaration about the delivery schedule and said “it had never been valid”. However, he did not withdraw his announcement about the two machines for the Special Ops. Nevertheless, the promised machines did not materialise by the end of the year.
In early January, the then spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defence, Bartłomiej Misiewicz, admitted in an interview with tvn24.pl that a certain delay has occurred ”as a result of the Christmas break” and they would arrive “in the nearest future”. At the same time he confirmed that the work on procuring two machines “for training” was progressing separately from the main tendering procedure for over a dozen of helicopters. In mid-January, on the occasion of the review of ministries, Macierewicz declared at a press conference that “the first two helicopters (...) will be delivered to Polish special forces at the turn of January and February”.
When in early February Macierewicz was asked again by journalists the whereabouts of the two promised Blackhawks for Special Ops, he declared that “the delivery will take place no later than in March”. In late March, deputy minister Bartosz Kownacki admitted, however, that the Ministry of National Defence was not holding any talks on that matter.
In addition, in April a scandal broke out when the chairman of the so called second Smolensk committee, Wacław Berczyński, bragged in an interview for “Dziennik Gazeta Prawna” daily that he was the one who had “killed” caracals with his behind-the-scenes actions. The Ministry of National Defence firmly denied his statements and maintains that the negotiations with the French were broken off for substantive reasons. Their offset offering was supposedly too limited.
Caracals can win again
Ironically, the “killed” caracals can triumph in the end. The Airbus corporation is competing in each of the two officially held tendering procedures, with its H225M machines, informally referred to as caracals. It can’t be ruled out that in the end they will win the contract and, finally, despite the many perturbations and wasted years, the Polish army will get what it was supposed to get, but much fewer of them.
The competitors of Airbus are also the same as several years ago. The Italian company Leonardo, which owns the PZL Świdnik plant, offers a big helicopter AW-101. The US-based Lockheed Martin with PZL Mielec offers smaller machines of the Blackhawk family, though it’s not clear in what specific version. Only the most basic S-70i is produced in Poland, which, without far-reaching modifications, is no good either for Special Ops or for the Navy.
“What is most interesting in this matter is that if the army’s requirements have not changed compared to the first tendering procedure, H225M stands a good chance of winning again” Likowski emphasises.
Autor: Maciej Kucharczyk / Źródło: tvn24.pl/tłumaczenie Intertext.com.pl