Civic Coalition, Third Way, and New Left stand a chance to win a combined 250 seats in the lower house of parliament, according to the latest Kantar poll for "Fakty" TVN and TVN24. PiS and Confederation would secure 209 seats in the Sejm, with the absolute majority necessary to pass laws at 231.
The opposition stands a chance to take over power in Poland - according to the latest, the last one before the electoral silence, poll conducted by Kantar for "Fakty" TVN and TVN24. Three opposition parties - Civic Coalition, Third Way, and New Left - can win a combined 250 seats in the Sejm, which would be a decisive majority. This is 6 more seats than in the previous Kantar poll for "Fakty" TVN and TVN24 carried out last week.
According to the latest survey, Civic Coalition would win 150 seats (7 less compared to the Oct. 4 poll), Third Way - 52 seats (11 more seats), and New Left - 48 seats (2 more).
PiS could count on 173 seats in the Sejm (15 seats less), while Confederation - 36 seats (9 more).
Although PiS enjoys the highest support, it would not be enough to form a coalition government with Confederation.
The poll was carried out on a larger and more precise sample.
German Minority would secure one seat in the parliament.
Poll: PiS with highest support
According to the latest poll, 31 percent of respondents said they would vote for PiS. This is 3 percentage points less compared to the Oct. 4 poll.
Civic Coalition would secure 26 percent of votes - 4 pp less than in the previous poll.
Third Way would secure votes of 12 percent of those surveyed - 3 pp more than on Oct. 4, New Left - 11 percent (1 pp more), and Confederation - 8 percent (no change).
Nonpartisan Local Government Activists would secure 3 percent of votes (1 pp more).
The answer "don't know/hard to say/haven't decided yet" was chosen by 8 percent of respondents (3 pp more).
1 percent (1 pp less) of those asked in the poll declared their support for "other election committee".
The telephone survey was carried out by Kantar on October 10-12 on a nationwide, representative sample of 1,702 people aged 18+.
Ahead of the 2019 parliamentary election, a Kantar poll for "Fakty" TVN and TVN24 correctly predicted the outcome of the vote. The statistical error for all parties was only at 3.2 percentage points.
Kantar was also nearly right ahead of the first round of the 2020 presidential election.
Źródło: TVN24 News in English, Kantar for "Fakty" TVN and TVN24