Statistics Poland: inflation in October at 5% y/y

Analysts surveyed by PAP Biznes had expected a 5.0 percent year-over-year increase in prices and a 0.4 percent month-over-month rise in October.

"CPI inflation in October rose slightly to 5.0% year-over-year from 4.9% in September, in line with our forecast. Food inflation accelerated to 4.9% year-over-year from 4.7% in September, and in October itself, food prices rose more strongly (month-over-month) than seasonal patterns indicate. In November, due to base effects, inflation should ease slightly. The scale of inflation increase in 2025 will depend on decisions regarding energy prices, which the government is set to address today," PKO BP economists wrote in their commentary.

"In October, we see an increase in inflation to 5% year-over-year, driven by monthly rises in food prices and sustained momentum in core inflation growth," commented analysts from mBank.

"The Central Statistical Office (GUS) confirms these assumptions. However, the structure indicated a higher increase in food prices and a slightly larger decline in fuel prices. At the same time, it seems that core inflation has decreased from the 4.3% recorded in September," they added.

"No surprises. In October, CPI inflation rose to 5.0% year-over-year. The main reasons are higher food prices (expensive vegetables) and a low base for fuel prices from last year (promotional pricing). We estimate that core inflation has decreased to around 4.1-4.2% year-over-year. The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) will keep interest rates unchanged until the second quarter of 2025," assessed ING economists.

"In October, inflation once again reached 5%. The high rate of increase is primarily associated with rising energy bills—prices are 11.5% higher than last year. The prices of services also play a significant role, along with the lower reference point related to fuel prices," wrote analysts from the Polish Economic Institute.