"The U.S. President's visit to Poland is meant to serve as a signal for Eastern European countries that they are safe within NATO alongside the United States," Judy Dempsey of Brussels-based think-tank Carnegie Europe tells the Polish Press Agency (PAP).
The expert pointed out that this would be the first visit of an American president in the region after the United States agreed, after some hesitation, to send troops to our country. "It seems that America is fully committed to NATO's eastern flank," assessed Dempsey.
In her opinion it is difficult to predict what exactly will happen during Trump’s visit to Poland, but the expert believes that he may want to underline the security guarantees for Poland, at the same time asking that Warsaw increase its spending on security. "He likes to conduct talks in this transactional manner," observed the analyst.
I am positive that the Polish authorities have drafted a shopping list, but they will be wanting to find out whether the U.S. will help them modernize the army’s equipment Judy Dempsey
Dempsey believes that the sole fact the U.S. President chose Poland for an official visit before the G-20 summit in Germany is interesting. "It seems that he wants to reassure his allies from the eastern part of NATO that they will be safe both within NATO and under American leadership," she suggested.
In her opinion, procurement agreements for the Polish army may also be on the table. "I am positive that the Polish authorities have drafted a shopping list, but they will be wanting to find out whether the U.S. will help them modernize the army’s equipment," estimates Dempsey.
She added that Americans may also have expectations regarding not just Poland’s, but – more broadly speaking – NATO's involvement in the coalition against the so-called Islamic State. She stressed that neither Poland, nor other members of the Alliance are particularly eager to do so. "It is in Poland’s strategic interests to protect its borders and manage its relationship with Russia," indicated the expert.
Dempsey recalled the debate held before the Brussels NATO summit in May on whether the Alliance should join the anti-Daesh coalition. This decision was ultimately taken, but with the reservation that it would not mean involvement in military activities. Dempsey pointed out that it would be very interesting to learn what Donald Trump will tell his interlocutors in Warsaw about NATO’s involvement in the Middle East. "This is a question for which the Polish government has to be very well prepared," she underlined.
Article 5
Dempsey indicated that Trump had already made his declaration on Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, after being criticized by the press for failing to refer to it during the Brussels NATO summit in May. "I don’t know whether this is going to be a problem; perhaps it would be important for the Polish side to have a clear declaration from him with no room for misinterpretation, but to be honest I think the case has already been settled," she stressed. Last week head of the Polish National Security Bureau (BBN) Paweł Soloch said that Article 5, according to which allies should defend other allies, has been reaffirmed by the presence of American troops in Poland.
Judy Dempsey is the editor-in-chief of the Strategic Europe series, who spent many years working as a correspondent for the "International Herald Tribune" and "Financial Times".
Źródło: tvn24.pl/tłumaczenie Intertext.com.pl