PISM director: Russia's attack on Ukraine makes no sense from a military point of view

Russia said on Tuesday that it continued to launch long-range air strikes on Ukraine's energy and military infrastructure.

Parts of the country were left without power following the strikes, which began on Monday and are the biggest since the start of the war. Russia launched cruise missiles on busy cities during rush hour on Monday knocking out power and heat, in what Putin called revenge for a blown up bridge.

Director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) Sławomir Dębski said on Tuesday in TVN24's "Rozmowa Piaseckiego" the Russian shelling of Ukrainian cities had been carried out in salvoes, "that means dozens of missilies were fired simultaneously". "The goal was to mislead or hinder the work of Ukrainian anti-aircraft defence. Some of those missiles were fired to distract the anti-aircraft defence in the first place," he added.

In his opinion, "it is to mark a new stage".

Dębski said that "from a military point of view, it makes absolutely no sense". "But the Russian elite shares an expectation that this war will be run at a much higher cost for Ukraine, that there will be attacks on infrastructre, bridges and railway lines. The fact that the Russian army has been attacking this critical infrastructre only on a limited scale is a reason why further commanders are being replaced," he argued.

"They are seen as ineffective, because the war in Ukraine is not difficult enough for the Ukrainian people and their country," he added.

PISM chief also stressed that "such an attack, like the one on Kyiv, may be spectacular, but from a point of view of military needs, it's a waste of ammunition". "No military goals are achieved, the Ukrainian society mobilises - especially soldiers - to put up effective resistance, and the West mobilises to deliver new equipment. Foolishness," he said.

Asked about the situation around Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Sławomir Dębski replied: "Putin is getting weaker, clearly". "His prestige, authority has been built for last 20 years. Putin came to power with a promise to rebuild Russia, put it back on its feet, and bring back Russia's prestige as a global superpower. None of these promises have been fulfilled."

He added that "the Russians can see that they even fail to subdue Ukraine, they just can't break it". "For him (Putin - edit.) the war and the course of war against Ukraine is strongly tied to his position and authority as Russia's leader."

Asked if this could mean a palace coup in the near future, Dębski said: "I think Julius Caesar was also surprised when Brutus attacked him".

"At some point the elite around Putin might decide that their future will look better without Putin, rather than with him," PISM director said, adding that "Putin is well aware of this". "This one of the best protected leaders in the world. In every autocracy the method for shifting power has been known since antiquity, perfectly outlined."

Dębski was also asked about chances for peace talks. "As long as the aims of this war remain unchanged ... and it's been started by Putin to destroy the Ukrainian state and exterminate the Ukrainian nation - that to destroy its identity, to annihilate it - every armistice will only buy for the Russian army to rebuild itself, to regain strength and launch a new offensive," he replied.

"This war will last as long as Putin remains in power," he underscored.

PISM director also commented on China and India's reactions to Monday's attacks on Ukraine. Until now both countries were avoiding to directly condemn Russian invasion.

According to Dębski, "this has made an impact on the Kremlin". "During recent meetings, when Putin met with the Chinese leader among others, it was clear they had lost respect for him. It's certainly very difficult for him," he said.

He added that during the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Uzbekistan, "the body language of Putin's so-called allies, at least political ones, was quite obvious".

"First of all they are dissatisfied with the way Russia stepped into the Ukrainian bucket. This certainly makes it harder for them to run their own politics. Russia talks with them about loaning, sharing, or purchasing precision-guided munitions, which Russia has a shortage of," Dębski said.

Sławomir Dębski is a historian, political scientist, international expert, author of books, articles and collections of sources of diplomatic history. His main interests are: Polish foreign policy, EU external relations, NATO and transatlantic relations, Russian foreign and domestic policy, German-Russian relations. He is a former Director of the Polish-Russian Centre for Dialogue and Understanding.

The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) is a leading Central European think tank that positions itself between the world of politics and independent analysis. PISM provides analytical support to decision-makers and diplomats, initiates public debate and disseminates expert knowledge about contemporary international relations. The work of PISM is guided by the conviction that the decision-making process in international relations should be based on knowledge that comes from reliable and valid research.