Poll: Trzaskowski most popular among Poles declaring to vote on July 12

In the first round of the 2020 presidential election, Andrzej Duda won the majority of votes - 43.50 percent, whereas Rafał Trzaskowski - 30.46 percent. Both will face each other in the second round on July 12.

Ipsos pollster carried out a survey for OKO.press portal, in which respondents were asked who they would vote for in the second round of the election. The poll was conducted using the CATI method on a nationwide, representative sample of 1021 adult Poles, between June 30 and July 1.

Among respondents declaring definite participation in the July 12 vote, Andrzej Duda would win 48 percent of votes, while 49 percent would vote for Rafał Trzaskowski. Three percent did not specify who they would pick.

The situation looks quite different in the poll showing voters declaring that they will "rather" take part in the election. In such case, Andrzej Duda would also win 48 percent of votes, but Rafał Trzaskowski only 47 percent. Four percent remain undecided.

OKO.press underscores that the poll accuracy was 3 percent, which means that "the calculated difference is not statistically relevant". According to the portal, the real poll results should look as follows:

Rafał Trzaskowski 46-52 percent Andrzej Duda 45-51 percent.

The answer "don't know/haven't decided yet" was picked by 3 percent.

Ipsos also examined voter sentiment ahead of the second round when it comes to age groups. "The poll suggests that Poles below 50 years of age more often choose Rafał Trzaskowski, while those above 50 lean towards voting for Andrzej Duda," OKO.press commented.

According to Ipsos poll, Rafał Trzaskowski could count on the support of those who had voted on other candidates in the first round. As much as 21 percent of votes for Civic Coalition candidate could come from Szymon Hołownia's supporters, 3,7 percent from Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz's and Robert Biedroń's supporters each, and 3 percent from Krzysztof Bosak's. Only 1,5 percent would come from those respondents who did not vote in the first round.

Among the respondents who declared support for Andrzej Duda in the second round, 3,9 percent of votes would come from Krzysztof Bosak's first-round voters, 2,3 percent from Szymon Hołownia's, 0,5 percent from Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, as well as 3,8 percent from those who did not vote on June 28.

"A vasta majority of democratic opposition supporters wants to vote for Trzaskowski in the second round: as much as 86 percent of Szymon Hołownia's voters, a little less of Kosiniak's and Biedroń's, while only 10 percent or less want to vote for Duda. (...) Quite divided, however, is Krzysztof Bosak's electorate: the majority wants to vote for Duda (44 percent) slightly less for Trzaskowski (34 percent), but as much as 22 percent are still undecided," OKO.press portal wrote.