IMF raises Poland's GDP forecast for 2021 and 2022
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised forecast for Polish economy for 2021 and 2022. The fund expects the country's GDP this year to increase by 4.6 percent, and by 5.2 percent next year. The global GDP forecast for 2021 remains unchanged, while the IMF predicts it to increase by 4.9 percent next year. According to the organisation, potential further waves of the pandemic and new mutations of the virus may still influence financial forecasts.
According to the latest World Economic Outlook report by the IMF, Poland's GDP in 2021 should increase by 4.6 percent, rather than by 3.5 percent as it had predicted earlier this year. In 2022, the country's GDP is expected to grow by 5.2 percent, compared to the 4.5 percent from the previous estimation.
The report did not include justification for the forecast.
In early July, the European Commission raised Poland's GDP prediction for 2021 from 4 to 4.8 percent, but lowered the 2022 forecast from 5.4 to 5.2 percent.
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) said in July that Poland's economy would grow by 5 percent in 2021, by 5.4 percent in 2022, and by 5.3 percent in 2023. In March, Poland's central bank predicted the GDP to grow by 4.1 percent this year, and in 2022 and 2023 - by 5.4 percent.
"The upward revision of the GDP path in 2021 is due to a faster than assumed in the previous projection rebound of domestic economic activity in 2021 Q1. This data, along with relatively favourable economic results for April and May 2021, amid persisting difficult epidemic situation in this period, indicate a higher than assumed level of adjustment of economic agents to operating during the pandemic," the NBP said in July's "Inflation Report".
Global economy - IMF forecast
"The global economy is projected to grow 6.0 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022," the IMF said in July's edition of the World Economic Outlook.
"The 2021 global forecast is unchanged from the April 2021 WEO, but with offsetting revisions. Prospects for emerging market and developing economies have been marked down for 2021, especially for Emerging Asia. By contrast, the forecast for advanced economies is revised up. These revisions reflect pandemic developments and changes in policy support," we read in the report.
The IMF also said that future COVID-19 infection spikes, as well as the new variants of the coronavirus, were important risk factor for GDP growth projections worldwide.
Źródło: TVN24 News in English, PAP
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